How to count deaths in a pandemic

The coronavirus causes the worst US GDP drop since 2008; US death toll may be a significant undercount.

Tonight's Sentences was written by Cameron Peters.

TOP NEWS

Coronavirus puts an end to a decade of US economic expansion

https://www.vox.com/2020/4/29/21241027/q1-gdp-report-coronavirus-recession

David Becker/AFP via Getty Images

According to data released by the Commerce Department on Wednesday, US GDP declined by a 4.8 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2020, officially putting an end to a decade of economic expansion in the US. [CBS News]
That number is likely underselling the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, however, as the real toll of the virus began to materialize in the back half of March. [Vox / Matthew Yglesias]
The drop was the worst since the Great Recession, but second quarter GDP numbers are likely to overshadow even 2008; the data firm IHS Markit projects that GDP could fall by an annual rate of 37 percent in the current quarter. [WSJ / Harriet Torry]
GDP isn't the only economic indicator that's flashing red right now: Last week, the US reported around 26 million unemployment claims over the five-week stretch since the pandemic hit, and the unemployment rate could top 20 percent. [NBC News / David Gura]
At this point, a massive recession is all but inevitable, and the primary uncertainty is how long it will last. Estimates by the Congressional Budget Office suggest that it could take until 2022 for US GDP to bounce back, though the Trump administration has been more optimistic. [NYT / Ben Casselman]
One concern — aside from the unfolding economic disaster the US is already dealing with — is the prospect of a W-shaped economic recovery. If the US reopens too soon, experts warn, a second outbreak of the coronavirus could lead to a devastating second downturn. [Washington Post / Heather Long]
Though the full impact of the coronavirus is still unfolding, the catastrophe to date has been sufficiently dire that Congress passed an unprecedented $2.2 trillion economic stimulus package last month, and has since authorized more money for a small-business lending program. [Roll Call / Jennifer Shutt]
And leading economists now say that even more spending is needed to keep the US economy afloat, despite murmurings about the deficit from some congressional Republicans. "If you take care of the budget at the expense of the economy," one former head of the CBO told Politico, "you're making a mistake." [Politico / Victoria Guida and Marianne LeVine]

Almost 60,000 US coronavirus deaths — and that's still an undercount

New data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggests that the official US death toll is an undercount. Across seven states, there are at least 9,000 more deaths than usual that haven't been included in the official count of Covid-19 deaths. [NYT / Josh Katz, Denise Lu, and Margot Sanger-Katz]
An analysis conducted by Yale researchers for the Washington Post has reached a similar conclusion: Though not all "excess deaths" are necessarily attributable to Covid-19, the overall number has significantly outstripped the official coronavirus death toll. [Washington Post / Emma Brown, Andrew Ba Tran, Beth Reinhard, and Monica Ulmanu]
Another cause of excess deaths, aside from those directly attributable to Covid-19, could be the economic and health care crises created by the pandemic. [Vox / Dylan Scott]
One of the reasons behind the US undercounting deaths, according to experts, is the chronic dearth of coronavirus testing in the US, a shortage that was especially pronounced earlier in the outbreak. Until earlier this month, the US was only including lab-positive coronavirus patients in the death toll. [ABC News / Dr. Mark Abdelmalek, Chris Francescani, and Kaitlyn Folmer]
Even as an undercount, the number of confirmed Covid-19 fatalities in the US is quickly approaching 60,000. This week, it exceeded the total number of US deaths in Vietnam as the number of confirmed US cases topped 1 million. [NPR / David Welna]

MISCELLANEOUS

Rep. Justin Amash, who quit the Republican Party last year, has launched an exploratory committee to run for president on the Libertarian Party ticket.

[NPR / Barbara Sprunt]

Meat processing plants have become hot spots for the coronavirus. Trump wants to use the DPA to keep them open anyway. [Vox / Nicole Narea]
How the coronavirus affects the body — and what we still don't know [NY Mag / David Wallace-Wells]
Belgium needs you to eat more fries. [Politico / Barbara Moens]

VERBATIM

"It's been pretty weird to be out of work; it gets to you slowly. I've always been a very self-sufficient person, and maybe it's just my pride, but I want to be able to take care of myself and others. To have the rug pulled out from under you, to have to rely on others … it hurts."

[A recently unemployed worker on what it's like to lose your job during the coronavirus / Vox]